2023 Fed Damage Assessment – What’s Next?

#Markets #Fed #Macro #2023Outlook #Hikes #ISM #JOLTS #Disruption #Crypto #RiskAssets
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00:00 Introduction
01:00 The Story
01:27 2023 Global Inflation Forecast
01:49 Hiking at Record Speed – 6 Mths to Feel Impact
02:21 IA Top Macro Indicators
04:19 17-Mar-22
04:39 5-May-22
04:49 16-Jun-22
05:12 27-Jul-22
05:44 21-Sep-22
06:11 2-Nov-22
06:39 14-Dec-22
06:47 1-Feb-23
07:04 Feb 1, 2023 Shot = 25 bps
07:31 Hiking Times
07:34 The Fed’s December 2022 Dot Plot
08:26 JP’s Choice – Let’s See Where The Economy is!
08:41 Mega Cap Tech Already in Financial Armageddon
09:26 Tech Layoffs Already Mostly Done
10:02 Leading Economic Indicators vs GDP
10:37 IA MACRO Model – New 2 Year Low
11:04 ISM Tanks to 2008 Level (excl C19 Anomaly)
11:55 US Real Estate Market – Activity Crashing 39%
12:25 Labor Force Participation vs C19
12:50 Labor Force Participation – Structural Change
14:00 Oil – YoY Negative first time in 2 Years
14:31 Food Down
14:50 Labor Cost Revisions
15:32 Labor Cost Will Help Fed Slow
16:02 True Job Situation
16:54 Oil Down 8% from A Year Ago
17:02 Wheat Down 4% in a Year
17:07 Dr Copper Down 10%
17:20 Conclusion
17:27 Inflation Heading Towards a 3 Handle in 2023
17:38 Hard Landing – Recession Will Hit in 2023
17:51 Summary